THE POLITICAL STATE OF THE WORLD AND ITS FUTURE
Humanity globalized its power before it globalized its wisdom.
PRA™ offers a structured way to read the political state of the world, compare actors, make assumptions explicit and build prospective scenarios. It began as a method for measuring political systems and developed into a broader instrument for examining the forces that may shape the world ahead.
Power today is no longer only military or territorial. It is also technological, financial, informational, cognitive, energy-based, logistical and algorithmic. Yet the institutions capable of guiding and constraining that power remain fragmented.
PRA™ does not claim to predict the future. It provides an analytical architecture for discussing possible trajectories.
- Understand PRA™ — from political measurement to global foresight.
- Explore the three author scenarios — Reasonableness, Wisdom and Chaos.
- Read the six reference publications in French and English.
- Build your own scenario using the public PRA™ tools.
Central Thesis
Humanity has globalized its power before it has globalized its wisdom.
Weapons, technologies, markets, digital platforms, data, critical infrastructures, supply chains, financial flows, pandemics and artificial intelligence now operate at a global scale. Yet the institutions able to orient this power, contain its excesses and prevent its destructive uses remain fragmented.
Why PRA matters
PRA™ provides a structured framework to make political judgment more explicit, traceable and discussable. Its originality lies in two complementary features: elementary notation as a building block of neutrality and methodological rigor, and scenario construction as a method for exploring possible futures.
Publications
Download the Executive Summary, the General Synthesis, and the full PRA v2.3 publication.
Three Scenarios
Reasonableness 2030-2035, Wisdom 2035-2050, Chaos 2030-2035.
Method in brief
elementary notation -> indicators -> variables -> clusters -> questionnaire -> scenario
Founded by Edmond Saint Samoht
What is PRA™?
PRA™ — Political Rating Agency — is an independent initiative designed to make political judgment more explicit, traceable and open to discussion.
Its starting point was methodological: can the political state of a country be assessed with greater rigor by separating institutional maturity, internal tensions, overall stability and geopolitical power? This work led to a broader question: what becomes of a humanity whose power is now planetary when the wisdom and institutions capable of guiding it remain fragmented?
PRA™ is built around two complementary ideas.
- Elementary political rating: instead of beginning with an overall judgment, the analysis is broken down into explicit criteria that can be discussed, revised and updated.
- From measurement to foresight: the same logic is extended to a wider set of states, alliances, institutions, private powers, platforms and other systemic actors, then transformed into variables, clusters, hypotheses and scenarios.
The problem
Global power, fragmented wisdom.
The instrument
Political rating, elementary notation, variables, clusters and questionnaire.
The trajectories
Reasonableness, Wisdom and Chaos.
The lessons
World war as event or system state, alliances, and the political need to globalize wisdom.
Reading paths: continuous reading, prospective reading, operational reading.
From Political Measurement to Prospective Scenarios
PRA™ does not eliminate subjectivity; it makes it visible, explicit and revisable. Political judgment remains necessary, but the method requires the analyst to declare the criteria and assumptions that support it.
The prospective method follows a simple chain:
Political measurement
explicit criteria are used to distinguish institutional maturity, internal tensions, stability and geopolitical power.
Wider actor map
The analysis is extended beyond states to roughly one hundred actors: alliances, institutions, platforms, critical infrastructures, private systemic powers, ideological and coercive actors, and exposed states.
Common variables
Actors are described through shared variables such as hegemonic propensity, restoration narrative, critical resources, coercion, strategic autonomy, asymmetric dependence, personalization of decision-making, information power, ideological pressure and cooperative orientation.
Clusters
Statistical analysis and classification identify seven analytical families of actors. These are not political camps or moral judgments.
Questionnaire and impact logic
Explicit assumptions about the future are translated into changes affecting variables, actors and clusters.
Scenario narrative
The resulting movements are used to build a conditional trajectory rather than a free-form prediction.
Three Author Scenarios
PRA™ explores three contrasting trajectories. They are not predictions. Each is a conditional scenario showing how different combinations of cooperation, coercion, technology, ideology, resources and political choices could reshape the international system.
Reasonableness 2030-2035
A world that does not become wise but contains some of its excesses through prudence, crisis fatigue and fear of the worst. Cooperation grows less from moral conversion than from the rising cost of escalation.
Wisdom 2035-2050
A regulatory utopia in which humanity gradually builds institutions proportionate to the risks it has created: artificial intelligence, climate, health, critical resources, information, peace and human dignity. Wisdom does not triumph; it becomes a discipline of survival.
Chaos 2030-2035
The failure trajectory. Power continues to grow without a shared principle of direction. Resources, platforms, data, infrastructures, sanctions, currencies, narratives and technologies become instruments of confrontation.
Publications
The Political State of the World and Its Future is available in three levels of reading, in both English and French. Choose the full book, the general summary or the executive summary.
Build Your Own PRA™ Scenario
PRA™ is not only a framework to read. It can also be used as a practical prospective exercise.
The public package has been deliberately simplified. It allows you to make your assumptions explicit, identify the forces and actors that matter most, and draft your own conditional scenario without reproducing the full technical machinery of the PRA™ model.
After completing the Questionnaire and Scenario Template, users may send both documents to saintsamoht@politicalrating.org
The exercise uses three documents:
Public Guide
the essential principles, variables and clusters.
Questionnaire
one question per row, with a dropdown response and an optional comment.
Scenario Template
A simple structure for turning your selected assumptions into a narrative scenario.
Temporal Evolution of Political Systems
The PRA™ model incorporates a temporal dimension through the comparison between baseline data (t0) and the Q1 2026 update.
This approach highlights:
- upward trajectories
- downward trajectories
- resilience under pressure
- structural deterioration
Political systems are thus understood as evolving trajectories rather than static positions.
Key Findings
Architecture analytique, critères et axes d’évaluation
The PRA™ analysis reveals several structural patterns:
- the global hierarchy does not reflect political maturity
- democratic systems can experience significant internal tensions
- hybrid configurations are increasingly common
- political trajectories are dynamic and often non-linear
Publications
These documents provide full transparency on the model and its implementation.
About PRA™ and the Author
PRA™ — Political Rating Agency — is an independent analytical initiative created and developed by Edmond Cohen, who publishes under the name Edmond Saint Samoht.
The project began with a question about political measurement and gradually expanded into a broader inquiry into the political state of the world and its possible futures. Its purpose is not to impose a political vision, but to provide a framework in which criteria, assumptions and scenarios can be made explicit, discussed and revised.
Edmond Cohen is the author of work on political thought, foresight, and metaphysics. The name Edmond Saint Samoht, an anagram of Thomas, reflects an intellectual sensibility that is not confined to the visible. In his metaphysical work as in his political thought, he is attentive both to what appears and to what operates more discreetly: deep structures, invisible forces, beliefs, representations, and latent dynamics.
The reference work is The Political State of the World and Its Future.
For questions concerning PRA™, the methodology, publications, media or institutional inquiries, or the public scenario exercise:
